How to tell the difference between a genuine skeptic and a simple denialist

Skeptics holds themselves accountable to a high set of intellectual standards and act according to the good faith assumptions of the community of research and inquiry of which they are nominally a part. They understand that intellectual pursuits are ultimately communal, in that all involved operate according to a shared set of rules and ethical codes. This doesn’t mean the process isn’t occasionally confrontational and even antagonistic – it certainly is, and a rigorous process demands it – but it understands that the laws of the universe don’t conform to “us vs. them” partisanship.

The genuine skeptic has a mind that’s large enough to accommodate states between “proven” and “false.”* That is, the skeptic understands that sometimes we just don’t know yet and he or she is comfortable saying we don’t know. The skeptic often encounters cases where it seems possible, perhaps even likely, that a proposition is true, although the evidence to demonstrate it conclusively hasn’t been presented yet. When asked about such a case, that’s exactly the answer he or she gives – the evidence we have suggests X is plausible, although we need more study. A really informed skeptic can then tell you, in some detail, what kinds of study are needed and precisely what standards of proof need to be met in order to move the needle forward (or backward).

In other words, skeptics are at ease with uncertainty. They know that it’s impossible to know everything. And they feel no compulsion to arrive at a conclusion before its time, whether that conclusion is an acceptance of a hypothesis or its rejection.

What the skeptic does not do is reject a proposition out of hand. With respect to hypothesis X, there is always a deliberative phase between proposal and conclusion, where there is a certain amount of evidence and discussion and debate, but well before there is enough to either demonstrate truth or falsity. The person who asserts that the lack of definitive proof means the proposition is false is, by definition, not a skeptic. That person is a denier (and there are other, less charitable words, as well). With this crowd, the rejection of anything that can’t be proven conclusively tends to go hand in hand with a set of criteria that is unreasonable and migratory – that is, they tend to move around, and especially skitter in the opposite direction as evidence approaches.

Find the Skeptic: A Hypothetical Case

A study conducted by researchers at Upper Midwestern University in 1995 asserted that the air is getting thicker. Several hundred subsequent studies by researchers around the world over the past 15 years generally confirmed that the air is, in fact, getting thicker. There is some debate over the cause, although a strong consensus of atmospheric scientists are convinced that it’s a result of microwaves interacting with certain common airborne pollutants. There are, to date, no independent, peer-reviewed studies that demonstrate no thickening effect.

If the trend continues, some scientists believe the Earth’s population could choke to death on the thicker air within a century.

Who among the following is a skeptic?

A: Ray Rogers, publisher of ThickeningThugs.com, a blog dedicated to debunking global thickening claims. Bill meticulously collects and refutes all the stories he can find that point to the conclusion that the air is getting thicker. He regularly publishes articles from others who oppose thickening theory.

B: Bob Bird is a professional chemist who devotes significant amounts of his free time to researching the subject of global thickening. While not positioned to conduct his own primary research, he has performed a good bit of mathematical analysis on the data that’s publicly available. His conclusions support many of the UMU team’s findings, but he believes there is potential merit to findings by scientists in Australia dismissing the microwave link and pointing instead to increases in chamomile cultivation.

C: Sen. Mike Morris chairs the subcommittee on atmospheric research. He has been vehement in asserting that there is no credible evidence pointing to atmospheric thickening.

D: Sen. Diana Deane, who also serves on the subcommittee on atmospheric research, says that there are many studies that contradict on the question of thickening and calls for more research.

E: GADZO1979 spends several hours a day on news sites and blogs arguing thickening with any proponents he/she can find. GADZO is remarkably well-armed with data and is often successful at overwhelming bloggers and commenters with evidence that debunks the theory.

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